What would Karen do?

Packing for a move brings some interesting items back into the light.
Consequently, I have a situation and need some advice...

I have a tape of a concert my ex gave with two of his friends from high school. I believe this is the only recording of the concert. He's a semi-professional musician, and I think he'd probably like to have the recording. Whether or not he has a tape player is another question. We don't really talk, but I have his contact info. (Even though we don't talk, we keep each other updated on our whereabouts in case of emergency. Don't ask me what type of emergency would come up that I would need him for. I don't know. I don't know why he would need me, either. It's just something we do.)

To be fair, I have to tell you that I'm not good for him. I don't want to hurt him, but inevitably I do. Every time we try to be friends, things go along fine for a couple weeks/months and then he tells me he needs a break. In the seven years since we broke up, I have only seen this coming once (three years ago, when I got engaged). All the other times, I thought we were just sending the occasional casual email and everything was fine. Apparently, that's not the case. I'd like to think we have enough distance between us now, but I know I'm not the one who gets to make that call.

About a month ago, I sent him a message via facebook asking if he wanted the tape. He hasn't responded. He usually has to brood for a while before he responds to emails, but this is an unusually long time. Also, he just moved, so I'm sure he has other things on his mind. BUT, it's also possible that he just doesn't realize I sent him the message. I sent it via facebook because our most recent contact was over face book, and I figured that would be less threatening, but it's very possible that he doesn't know that he has a message in his inbox, if he doesn't use that function. Assuming he wants the tape, I'd like to send it to him before I move so I don't lose
it. But it's smaller than a bread box. Moving it to the new place is not a problem.

So, here are the possible scenarios, as I see them.

1. He's ignoring me because:
   
   • He doesn't want any contact - including the tape. Throw the tape away before I move
   • He doesn't want to invite me back into his life, but he still wants the tape. Send him the tape whether or not he replies.
2. He's not ignoring me. He hasn't replied because:
   
   • He's stressed about his own move. Wait for him to reply.
   • He hasn't seen my message. Email or call him.

What would you do? Based on his past behavior, all four scenarios are possible, although I think 1a is the least likely considering that he just friended me a couple months ago. I think the tape is something he'd like to have, but I don't want to be creepy about sending it to him. Even though he knows I have his address, he probably doesn't think about me ever sending him mail, so if a random package from me showed up, he might be a little upset. Or he might just think "oh, a package from Marisa..." I really have no idea. (He made the last mail contact - he sent me a postcard when I moved to Pittsburgh - so I know he used to be open to mail.) I'd rather have his permission to send him the tape, but I don't want to throw the tape away if he wants it and doesn't want to contact me or hasn't seen my message.

So, I'm torn. Do I email him again? Call him? (This would probably be awkward. we haven't spoken in 5-6 years.) Wait another month? Throw the tape away?

Why is this bothering me so much?